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‘Zero-tax’ forecast for oil & gas must be wake-up call for UK and Scottish Governments

The OBR has warned that tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas will fall from £5.1 billion in 2026-27 to almost zero by 2031-32.

The Scottish Greens have called on the SNP and Labour governments to urgently invest in Scotland’s green economy and deliver a real just transition for North Sea workers, following stark new forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

The OBR has warned that tax revenues from North Sea oil and gas will fall from £5.1 billion in 2026-27 to almost zero by 2031-32, while production is expected to decline by around 10% every year.

Scottish Greens energy spokesperson, Kristopher Leask MSP, said:

“These figures should be a wake-up call for both UK and Scottish governments. The North Sea is declining, and no amount of political wishful thinking or promises of new drilling will change that reality.

“For years, politicians have told oil and gas workers that more drilling is the answer. But even with new fields included in these forecasts, production is set to fall dramatically. The SNP Government has promised £500 million to a Just Transition Fund, but that money is yet to be delivered at anything like the pace that workers and communities were told. 

“At the same time, the same SNP sit on their hands whenever there is a chance to oppose new oil and gas projects like Rosebank, and celebrate when they are approved, like Jackdaw. Just yesterday, the SNP abstained on Mark Ruskell’s amendment that would have shown whose side they are on. 

“Scotland has the skills, resources and expertise to become a world leader in renewable energy, not dig our heels further into a dying industry. What is missing is the political will and investment to make it happen. The days of a Scottish Government that once had that political will, led by Nicola Sturgeon, appear to be long gone. 

“John Swinney must urgently accelerate that funding and publish a credible energy strategy that puts secure, well-paid, unionised green jobs at its heart and finally come off the fence and show Scotland who he stands up for. 

“Our changing energy economy must mean real jobs, real investment and real opportunities for workers and their families in the future. Scotland’s energy workers deserve a future, and both governments have a responsibility to deliver it. 

“That means investing in our ports, manufacturing, offshore wind, decommissioning and the supply chains that can provide a lasting future for communities across Scotland, and it means stopping Rosebank.”